KickstarterForum.org

Was reading through this post on BigML: "A predictive model from machine learning service BigML claims it can help predict whether a Kickstarter campaign will be successful. The model analyzed nearly 17,000 campaigns and seems to show that target goals and the number of backers matter a lot."

The most-important is the number of backers: the model is 80.5 percent confident that campaigns with more than 34 backers will succeed, while it’s 65 percent confident those with less than 34 backers will fail.

Up next is target goal, with smaller amounts resulting in a higher likelihood of success. The model is 92.6 percent confident that campaigns with more than 34 backers and aiming for less than $8,815.85 will succeed, while the confidence level is only 62 percent for those aiming for more. And if a successful campaign is all that matters, the target goal really should be less than $4,844.48 (a a confidence score of 96.3 percent versus 86 percent for higher goals).

Kickstarter itself reports that "Of the projects that have reached 20% of their funding goal, 82% were successfully funded. Of the projects that have reached 60% of their funding goal, 98% were successfully funded.”

Read the article here: http://gigaom.com/2013/01/25/how-to-suc ... than-9000/

I know that there is a lot of research on crowdfunding and it's kind of interesting to think that you can actually predict someone's likelihood of success. Then again, creation and backing is human behavior, which never follows predictive patterns 100%.

Interesting. Though, this study seems to ignore incentive levels. Is it that they are incorporated as an assumption that you must be doing something right if you hit 20% and 60% respectively? I haven't been doing this for very long (I'm researching and learning as much as I can about the process), so correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like Crowdfunding is a combination of 3 things: Instilling a need in the funder (aka that human, guttural belief in something); incentives to throw money at the project, and the mob mentality that if one of us is doing something, we all should. I think statistics are a good indicator, but I have no doubt that the margin for error is so high because human emotion can be so unpredictable. Thoughts?

I tend to agree with you about human emotion being so unpredictable. Maybe it'll change over time as crowdfunding grows but I wonder if, perhaps at this point in time, human emotion really isn't that unpredictable for campaigns that reach those milestones.

now I feel like I'm doomed...lol

lostbot101 wrote:now I feel like I'm doomed...lol

Unless you revise your project page, you likely are.

Gosh! I have 31 backers :/
I still have a few friends who are yet to back so that will be possible but. I guess statistics can only go so far but it is worth considering as a formula...

I have just over 2 weeks does the time scale count effect this also?

That's probably the best info I can use- concise and easy to understand. I'm going for 34+ backers, regardless of how much I think they'll pledge. Thanks.