Charles wrote:And what do your numbers look like, if you assume that only about 3% pledge, instead of the numbers that you are operating off of?
It's not that your numbers can't come true. Rather, what is the probability that they will come true?
Andy_Sinclair wrote:Top-line probabilities (105 pledges) are based on the phone-calls made so far - 17 calls made - 17 promises of pledges - so that part is pretty accurate.
I think that the secondary level pledges is much more difficult to judge and is one of the reason that I have a major marketing blast ready to go - to get people who do not know the orchestra involved. If I get 100 pledges in the first 3 days, which is my initial target, then we are looking at about 25-30%. And Kickstarter stats show that projects that get to that figure early have an 80% chance of success.
Cheers,
Andy
Charles wrote:
OK, let's go with this new information. That leaves a 20% chance of failure. How do you intend to address that 20%, in order to whittle that figure down?
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Charles wrote:Personally, I think that your project has an edge over most other projects. Why? Because, the nature of a people's orchestra is that multiple people are closely connected with the thing that underlies the project - namely, the orchestra, itself. Lots of personal connections to the orchestra. Lots of potential content generators for the project.
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Charles wrote:
I'm not sure when you are intending to launch your project, Andy, but Halloween and Christmas are both coming up. Both of those occasions provide you with opportunities to inject some color into your campaign. Halloween costumes make for great photo opportunities (bursts of visual imagery), and Christmas makes for great personal sentiment.
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Charles wrote:Halloween, in fact, is a time when kids demonstrate the art of asking for pledges -.
Andy_Sinclair wrote:It is a bit of a dilemma - do I hamper/destroy the press launch in order to make the communication for supporters easier? I don't know the answer, comments would be welcome.
Cheers,
Andy
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