The most-important is the number of backers: the model is 80.5 percent confident that campaigns with more than 34 backers will succeed, while it’s 65 percent confident those with less than 34 backers will fail.
Up next is target goal, with smaller amounts resulting in a higher likelihood of success. The model is 92.6 percent confident that campaigns with more than 34 backers and aiming for less than $8,815.85 will succeed, while the confidence level is only 62 percent for those aiming for more. And if a successful campaign is all that matters, the target goal really should be less than $4,844.48 (a a confidence score of 96.3 percent versus 86 percent for higher goals).
Kickstarter itself reports that "Of the projects that have reached 20% of their funding goal, 82% were successfully funded. Of the projects that have reached 60% of their funding goal, 98% were successfully funded.”
Read the article here: http://gigaom.com/2013/01/25/how-to-suc ... than-9000/
I know that there is a lot of research on crowdfunding and it's kind of interesting to think that you can actually predict someone's likelihood of success. Then again, creation and backing is human behavior, which never follows predictive patterns 100%.